Global Economy Has Recovered, But For How Long?

By Mel Dikert

     A decade ago, in 2008, the U.S. and most of the world’s major economies descended into what has been deemed by the Washington Post as one of the worst economic crises the world has faced. Now, in 2018, the aftermath seems to have settled as global economies are expanding for the first time in 10 years. The New York Times reports that all of the major economies are “expanding at once,” likening it to a “synchronous wave of growth” that is responsible for “creating jobs, lifting fortunes” and quelling the “fears of popular discontent.”

     No one is quite sure how the turnaround finally happened, nor can they pinpoint a single reason for the improvements that have suddenly come about. According to The New York Times, however, it is believed to be the result of “destructive forces” weakening and fading away since they first halted global economic growth 10 years ago. The U.S., for example, had major tax cuts in December of up to $1.5 trillion, and, “Europe has finally felt the effects of cheap money pumped out by its central bank,” states The New York Times,

     Professor Marc Tomljanovich of the Economics Department, when asked if he believes the growth will last, said, “Right now the indications are good that the global recovery is strong and will persist for several quarters at least… The U.S. tax cuts passed in December will fuel American economic growth for the first half of 2018 at a minimum, and help lift other economies.”

     The New York Times lists some improvements in other countries, too, including the “[r]ising oil prices” that have been lifting “Russia and Middle East producers” as well as the “tentative signs of recovery” in the Brazilian economy after “suffering the effects of a veritable depression…”

     However, some economists are worried about the current global growth the world is experiencing, as it feels “eerily similar” to that of 2006, spreading fear that a similar crisis will follow, says The Washington Post. Carlyle Group, a private equity and alternative investment firm, co-founder David Rubenstein is reported to have said, “The biggest concern I have is no one thinks there’s a chance of a recession this year or next.” There has also been the issue of a potential U.S.-China trade war, though business leaders have admitted that “the rhetoric has been far worse than the actions so far,” the Washington Post continued. When Professor Tomljanovich commented on the matter, he explained that there is nothing that should cause any great alarm at this point. “The U.S. consumer debt-to-GDP ratio, while rising, is well below its pre-crisis levels,” he said. “U.S. home prices and sales are rising, evoking cries of a possible bubble by some, but really it’s a return to relatively normal conditions.”

     Though there are still some places that are not seeing the same drastic changes, The New York Times reports that circumstances are still looking far better now than they have been in recent years.       

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